A long-term study has shed new light on how attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) changes over time, finding that most individuals experience alternating periods of symptom remission and recurrence rather than a static course of persistent symptoms. The research, published in the Journal of Clinical Psychiatry, suggests that ADHD is not a simple condition that either resolves or persists but one that often fluctuates depending on life circumstances and other factors.
ADHD is a neurodevelopmental condition that typically begins in childhood and affects a person’s ability to focus, control impulses, and regulate activity levels. Common symptoms include difficulty sustaining attention, hyperactivity, and impulsivity, which can significantly impact daily life, school, and work. ADHD has traditionally been understood as a chronic condition, with studies suggesting that about half of those diagnosed in childhood continue to experience symptoms into adulthood.
However, growing evidence suggests that ADHD doesn’t always follow a straightforward trajectory of persistence or remission. For many individuals, symptoms seem to fluctuate, with periods of improvement and recurrence over time. This evolving understanding of ADHD raises important questions. If symptoms can wax and wane, what factors drive these changes? Are they influenced by external circumstances, such as environmental demands?
The researchers behind the new study sought to address these questions using data from the Multimodal Treatment of ADHD (MTA) study, a long-term project initially designed to compare various treatments for ADHD in children.
“I have been researching the nature of how ADHD changes over time for a while, and in 2022, we published a paper looking into whether it is possible for anyone to truly outgrow their ADHD permanently,” said study author Margaret H. Sibley, a professor of psychiatry and behavioral sciences at the University of Washington School of Medicine and a clinical psychologist at Seattle Children’s Hospital.
“In the 2022 paper, we found that only about 9% of the sample appeared to truly remit from or recover from their ADHD long-term. However, we also found a surprising result: in most of the sample, ADHD was highly fluctuating. This means that in some years, people experienced full-severity ADHD, while in other years, their symptoms and impairments were mild—or even not present at all. Because this finding was unexpected, we published this 2024 paper to look more closely into what was going on.”
For this follow-up study, the researchers analyzed data from 483 participants, all of whom were diagnosed with ADHD in childhood and tracked for 16 years. Participants were between 7 and 10 years old at the study’s start, with follow-up assessments conducted approximately every two years, extending into their mid-20s. The goal was to understand how ADHD symptoms and impairments changed over time and identify factors predicting periods of remission and recurrence.
At each assessment, participants and their parents (or other close informants) provided detailed information about ADHD symptoms, functional impairments, and treatment usage. ADHD symptoms were measured using validated rating scales, which asked participants to report the frequency and severity of behaviors such as inattentiveness and hyperactivity. Impairments—such as challenges in school, work, or relationships—were also assessed. Additionally, the researchers evaluated participants’ environmental demands, such as their level of responsibility in areas like work, education, and finances.
The participants were grouped into four longitudinal patterns: stable persistence (symptoms consistently met diagnostic thresholds), stable partial remission, recovery (sustained full remission), and fluctuating ADHD (alternating periods of remission and recurrence).
The majority of participants (63.8%) exhibited fluctuating ADHD, characterized by periods of remission interspersed with recurrences of symptoms. On average, these individuals experienced three to four transitions between remission and recurrence over the 16-year study period. The fluctuations were significant, with participants’ symptom severity varying by as much as six or seven symptoms between their best and worst phases. The first remission periods often began in early adolescence, around age 12, but symptoms tended to return within a few years.
The findings highlight that “ADHD fluctuations are common and substantive” and that “most desistance from ADHD represents partial, rather than full, remission,” Sibley told PsyPost.
Only 9.1% of participants achieved sustained full remission with no recurrence of symptoms during the later years of the study. Another 15.6% of participants experienced one significant reduction in symptoms, typically beginning in late adolescence or early adulthood, that remained stable thereafter. About 11% of participants exhibited consistently high symptoms throughout the study, with minimal or no improvement over time.
“Recovery from ADHD by young adulthood is rare—most remitted ADHD recurs,” Sibley said.
The study also shed light on the role of environmental demands in shaping ADHD symptoms. Participants were more likely to experience remission during periods of higher environmental demands, such as taking on significant responsibilities at work, school, or home. This counterintuitive finding suggests that structured, demanding environments may help some individuals with ADHD manage their symptoms more effectively, possibly by providing external motivation or structure.
“We expected the relationship between environmental demands and ADHD symptoms to be the opposite of what we found,” Sibley explained. “We hypothesized that when life demands and responsibilities increased, this might exacerbate people’s ADHD, making it more severe. In fact, it was the opposite. The higher the demands and responsibilities one was experiencing, the milder their ADHD.”
“This might mean that people with ADHD perform their best in more demanding environments (perhaps environments that have stronger immediate consequences, like needing to put food on the table for a family or pay rent monthly). It also might mean that people with ADHD take more on their plate when their symptoms are relatively at bay.”
However, this relationship weakened as participants aged, indicating that environmental influences on ADHD symptoms may evolve over time.
The study also identified childhood factors predicting long-term outcomes. For instance, individuals in the recovery group tended to have fewer mood disorders and lower levels of parental psychopathology compared to those with stable persistence or fluctuating ADHD. These findings suggest that both internal traits and external factors contribute to the course of ADHD over time.
This research highlights the need for a more dynamic understanding of ADHD. Rather than viewing the condition as a fixed trait, clinicians and individuals with ADHD might benefit from anticipating and planning for fluctuations. The study also underscores the importance of communicating realistic expectations to patients. People with ADHD should know that periods of symptom worsening are normal and not a sign of failure.
“If you’re a doctor talking with a patient who is first getting diagnosed with ADHD, it’s a huge help for that person to hear the message that, ‘You’re going to have good years and not-so-good years, but things can go really well for you if you can get the right factors in place,’” Sibley said.
But as with all research, there are limitations. First, the sample consisted mainly of individuals diagnosed with the combined type of ADHD, so the findings may not fully apply to those with inattentive or hyperactive/impulsive types. Additionally, the assessments were conducted every two years, which may have missed finer details about the timing and triggers of fluctuations.
“It is pretty much impossible to use statistics to tease a part the exact reason for the trends we saw,” Sibley noted.
Future research could explore how specific factors—such as lifestyle changes, treatment adherence, and comorbid conditions—interact with ADHD symptoms over shorter time intervals. Researchers might also investigate how genetic and environmental factors combine to influence these patterns.
“We would like to identify lifestyle and environmental factors that can help people with ADHD live their happiest and healthiest lives,” Sibley said. “Conversations between researchers and people with lived experiences with ADHD are critical. If readers have ADHD and are interested in connecting with our team to be involved in focus groups or interviews with us, there is a form on my website that they can enter their information into.”
The study, “Characteristics and Predictors of Fluctuating Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder in the Multimodal Treatment of ADHD (MTA) Study,” was authored by Margaret H. Sibley, Traci M. Kennedy, James M. Swanson, L. Eugene Arnold, Peter S. Jensen, Lily T. Hechtman, Brooke S. G. Molina, Andrea Howard, Laurence Greenhill, Andrea Chronis-Tuscano, John T. Mitchell, Jeffrey H. Newcorn, Luis A. Rohde, and Stephen P. Hinshaw.
