Just after noon on Friday, March 20th, US president Donald Trump declared victory to a group of reporters in his broadly unpopular war with Iran. Just two minutes later, however, he announced he was sending US marines anyway. The next minute, the president said there would be no boots on the ground after all. A few beats later, he admitted he didn’t want a ceasefire, then declared victory again, then requested a ceasefire.
The volley continued like this for nearly half an hour, the president’s stream of consciousness pouring from within, in a prime example of Trump’s contradictory messaging on Iran. In addition to exhausting reporters and scrambling the news cycle, episodes like this have fueled speculation that people close to the president are feeding off the chaos.
As a recent analysis by economist and Nobel laureate Paul Krugman argues, there’s evidence that insiders are profiting off the war in Iran. On Monday, for example, Trump reversed his weekend commitment to deliver painful retribution on the Iranian people if the country failed to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. At 7:05am on Monday morning, however, Trump chickened out, issuing a five-day pause on hostilities via a post on Truth Social.
The price of crude oil, which had flailed upward for weeks as shipments from the Persian Gulf slowed to a trickle, plummeted immediately, from around $112 a barrel before the announcement to a low of $97 by 11:00am.
However, about 15 minutes before Trump’s post, CNBC reported, there was a massive increase in the amount of S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the market, right before their price skyrocketed from around $6,500 to around $6,700. Someone also got incredibly lucky playing the oil market, with West Texas Intermediate May futures seeing a massive spike in trading activity at the exact same time — a sign that someone had shed theirs before the price experienced a major drop.
“The story would be baffling,” Krugman wrote, “except that there’s an obvious explanation: somebody close to Trump knew what he was about to do, and exploited that inside information to make huge, instant profits.”
It certainly isn’t the first time people had lucrative premonitions just minutes before Trump’s geopolitical decisions become public. Earlier this year, an incredibly well-timed bet on Polymarket came in just minutes before Trump ordered the US military to attack Venezuela.
In any normal world, Krugman explained, this would be more than enough cause for treason.
“I’d very much like to know exactly who was making those trades yesterday morning,” the famed economist wrote. “I’m sure we’ll find out once Kash Patel’s FBI carries out its careful, no-holds-barred investigation.”
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