As if oil shortages, perpetual wars, and the existential angst of AI weren’t stressful enough, there’s an El Niño brewing — and it’s looking like it’ll be one of the most severe in over a century.
According to numerous weather models, this year’s El Niño — a prolonged climate event featuring unusually warm temperatures, which pops up every couple of years — could easily be the most severe we’ve ever experienced in the modern age. This year’s warm spell could supercharge ocean temperatures by as much as 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit, the Wall Street Journal reports, resulting in widespread droughts for some, floods for others, and perhaps most chillingly, chaos for global food supplies.
To find a historical equivalent, scientists have had to reach all the way back to 1877, when a merciless El Niño unleashed death on a scale few events can rival. Per the WSJ, the catastrophe fueled ongoing droughts, culminating in a global famine that killed at least 50 million people, though some estimates peg the loss of life at an even more horrifying 60 million — around 3 percent on the total population on Earth at the time.
As climate researchers wrote in a 2018 study of the famine: “it was arguably the worst environmental disaster to ever befall humanity and one of the worst calamities of any sort in at least the last 150 years, with a loss of life comparable to the World Wars and the influenza epidemic of 1918/19.”
As humanity has developed, some have suggested that events like the 1877 El Niño represent a stress test of our progress, finding weak points in our political and economic systems. With widespread poverty and colonial immiseration fueling massive famines throughout the 1800s, it’s safe to say we failed our 19th century test.
While we’ve certainly come a long way since then, cynics have plenty of talking points. This year’s El Niño will be coming on the back of widespread droughts, a debilitated food supply chain, and years of record-breaking ocean temperatures, to give just a few pressing examples.
Whether 2026 becomes another chapter in this cycle of preventable devastation depends on how we use the technology, resources, and knowledge at our disposal. While it may be easy to wave away the calamity faced by our ancestors as a footnote in time, the future is never certain, and history doesn’t grade on a curve.
More on climate events: Earth Screams in Agony as Microplastics Found to Increase Global Warming
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