Earlier this year, highly suspicious accounts on crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket collected a hefty $400,000 after correctly predicting the time of US attacks on Venezuela and the kidnapping of its president — a scandal highlighting major concerns over insider trading running rampant on the platform.
Now, a slew of new Polymarket accounts are betting big on an imminent ceasefire between the US and Iran, placing bets of almost $70,000 for a deal being reached before March 31, as The Guardian reports.
The conflict, which doesn’t appear to have a clearly-defined goal, has thrown global trade into chaos, with oil prices and stocks going on a rollercoaster ride, as investors respond to president Donald Trump’s public flip-flopping over his threat to strike Iranian power plants.
While we don’t know whether the anonymous Polymarket accounts, all of which appear to be less than a week old, have access to inside information regarding the Trump administration’s talks with Iranian officials, the massive wagers have drawn plenty of scrutiny — and not just over the morally repugnant nature of betting on deadly conflicts.
The accounts “definitely [look like] someone with some degree of inside info,” former CoinTelegraph researcher Ben Yorke told The Guardian.
Yorke explained that some of the accounts may have split from one original account, suggesting a single anonymous investor may be trying to hide any traces of their questionable bets.
“Typically, when you see wallet splitting and deliberate attempts to obfuscate identity, it’s one of two scenarios: either a very large investor trying to shield their position from market impact, or insider trading,” he said.
Meanwhile, the vast majority of Polymarket users are wagering that a ceasefire will not occur by March 31, with only 17 percent buying “Yes.” A whopping $22 million has been wagered on either outcome of the prediction.
The thinking is that it’s extremely far-fetched that Trump will magically tidy up an extremely chaotic geopolitical crisis of his own making in a matter of days, especially given his most recent sabre rattling and immediate TACO.
However, the proportion of people who are betting on “Yes” rises to 76 percent predicting for a ceasefire by December 31.
Polymarket has seemingly done little to clean up its act so far, filling its own social media feeds with a stream of outright lies, as the New York Times reported last week.
Meanwhile, its main competitor, Kalshi, which officially operates in the US and is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has indicated that it’s looking to tamp down on insider trading. Last month, the company publicly accused video editor Artem Kaptur, who worked for James “MrBeast” Donaldson before being suspended, and reported him to federal regulators.
This week, Axios reported that Kalshi was blocking athletes, coaches, and political candidates from trading on the platform, an escalation of its anti-insider trading efforts.
More on Polymarket: Polymarket Announces New Bar For Degenerate War Profiteers
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