The digital Beanie Baby has had a rough week.
Last week, whispers of impending crypto regulation sent Bitcoin prices into a nosedive. The preeminent blockchain asset dipped just below $75,000 over the weekend, sending crypto bros into a frenzy. And now, the true believers are now whispering even darker prophecies: the real crash hasn’t even started.
If you take the pseudonymous blockchain influencer Crypto Bitlord’s word for it — and why wouldn’t you? — Bitcoin could fall as far as $30,000 by the time all is said and done.
“The next major support for bitcoin is $30k,” the poster predicted to over 430,000 X-formerly-Twitter followers over the weekend. “Unfortunately.”
That cynical take was echoed by Benjamin Cowen, founder of crypto analytics platform Into The Cryptoverse. “I do think Bitcoin is in fact in a bear market,” Cowen said in a video uploaded to his YouTube channel.
“In terms of cycle length, the length of this cycle was literally the same length as the past two cycles,” he cautioned. “It’s because, simply, the cycle is over, and instead of being in a bull market, we’ve transitioned into a bear market after the cycle has topped.”
This pattern, Cowen notes, pretty faithfully follows the four-year election cycle in the US. In the fourth quarter of 2013, 2017, 2021, and possibly in 2025 — all one year after a presidential election — Bitcoin has consistently peaked before entering a prolonged downturn.
“This is when it always drops,” Cowen said. “It always tops out in the fourth quarter of the post-election year, and why should this time be any different?”
Indeed, for all the rhetoric about decentralized finance and breaking free from traditional markets, it seems Bitcoin keeps dancing to the same tired rhythm. The only question now is how far it’ll fall before the next stream of euphoria hits.
More on crypto: Bitcoin Crashing Is Actually Awesome News for Regular People, Economist Says
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