As fears over an AI-driven jobs apocalypse continue to grow, researchers are trying to get a better sense of which occupations will be most — and least — affected.
Tech leaders continue to cite AI as the reason behind widespread layoffs, with economists warning that the changing dynamics could be devastating in the longer run.
Now, researchers at Tufts University have released what they claim to be the “first-of-its-kind data-driven framework,” dubbed the American AI Jobs Risk Index, to map out which occupations are the most vulnerable to AI — and geographically where those effects are likely to be felt the hardest.
If they hold up, the findings are cause for alarm. The data suggests that around 9.3 million American jobs are “at risk of displacement in the next two to five years.” Some 4.9 million workers were identified to be spread across 33 “tipping point” occupations that are at the highest risk of AI displacement.
Anywhere from $200 billion to $1.5 trillion of combined household incomes could be on the chopping block, a potential jolt that could have vast implications.
The researchers’ take: only those who can leverage existing expertise and are ready to adopt the tech to gain an advantage over others will survive.
“We already know that AI is not just automating routine tasks — it is moving up, targeting the cognitive and analytical work that defines high-skill, high-wage careers,” said Tufts University dean of global business and economist Bhaskar Chakravorti in a statement. “The jobs of the future will be secured by those with a combination of subject-matter expertise, critical-thinking skills for human judgment, and knowledge of AI and how to use it.”
The index, which assigns an “exposure score” to just shy of 800 different occupations, echoes previous research into the effects of AI on employment. At highest risk — perhaps unsurprisingly — are web and digital interface designers, web developers, database architects, computer programmers, data scientists, and financial risk specialists.
On the other end of the spectrum are a host of blue collar occupations, including roofers, miners, machine operators, meat packers, welders, stonemasons, and plasterers. Other least exposed occupations include surgical assistants, massage therapists, and fast food counter workers.
The researchers concluded that many of the lowest-paying jobs happen to be the least exposed.
“Physical, manual, and variable-condition work (roofers, orderlies, dishwashers) face less than one percent displacement,” they wrote. “The occupations AI cannot touch are largely those the economy has always undervalued.”
We’ve seen other investigations into the labor market impacts of AI, like one by Anthropic that was published earlier this month, with a similar takeaway.
The Tufts researchers’ focus on geography, though, is a fresh approach, finding that workers in major urban centers across the US are most exposed, with university towns being particularly vulnerable.
“Our index makes clear that the question is no longer whether AI will displace significant numbers of workers, but in which states and cities, how fast, and whether we are prepared by taking pre-emptive action,” said Chakravorti. “The geography of this disruption has real political consequences: the states and metros most at risk are already the most active in seeking AI regulation — and the federal government is telling them to stand down.”
“That collision will define the economic and political landscape of the next decade,” he added.
More on labor impacts: Anthropic Announces Jobs Most at Risk From AI
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